The 2024 presidential election cycle has seen its share of headlines in recent months:
- A party feverishly trying to convince an incumbent president not to run for re-election.
- A candidate getting shot at during an apparent assassination attempt.
- The sitting president bowing out of the race and immediately endorsing his vice president to replace him.
- A candidate with a real chance of becoming America鈥檚 first African-American, Asian-American, female President.
鈥淭his has been unprecedented,鈥� said Eastern 海角换妻 State University Presidential historian Thomas Balcerski.
Balcerski said adding to the list of unprecedented events is the public鈥檚 reaction to former President Donald Trump鈥檚 running mate, J.D. Vance.
鈥淲e've seen a party who brought about a vice presidential nominee that has proven historically unpopular and has actually fallen in its approval ratings more than any other candidate,鈥� he said.
On top of that Balcerski said Vice President Kamala Harris鈥檚 nomination is notable, because we now have 鈥渁 Democratic National Committee with a candidate who's received no votes in the primary.鈥�
So, what can history teach us about how this most unique Presidential election season will play out? According to Balcerski, history says no matter what the polls say today, a surprise is probably coming.
鈥淲e've been talking as if the election is somehow decided in June or July and August. It's not,鈥� Balcerski said. 鈥淚t's decided in those final months of October and November, and famously or infamously, we always seem to have something in those last couple of weeks, which we now call the 鈥極ctober surprise,鈥� that could change the entire course of the race.鈥�
The history of the 鈥極ctober Surprise鈥�
An 鈥淥ctober Surprise鈥� is now defined as 鈥漚n unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome,鈥� according to The Oxford English Dictionary
But Balcerski says that is only the most recent definition.
鈥淚t didn't actually have a political meaning,鈥� Balcerski said. 鈥淚t's an interesting term that actually comes out of advertising, when department stores would give a sale. We now might call it more like Black Friday.鈥�
A little more than four decades ago, Balcerski said the term鈥檚 evolution into a political phenomena began in earnest.
鈥淚t really took on historical or political meaning in 1980, when President Reagan's campaign manager was fired right in the eve of the election, and then he ended up beating President Carter anyway,鈥� Balcerski said. 鈥淭hat was considered the first 鈥極ctober Surprise.鈥欌��
October Surprises have been numerous since Donald Trump鈥檚 2016 presidential run.
鈥淚n 2016, it would seem the 鈥極ctober Surprise鈥� may have peaked with, in that case, news that came out against candidate Donald Trump about some of his conduct and behavior in 2005 this is the famous entertainment Hollywood Video,鈥� Balcerski said.
Then came a second surprise.
鈥淲e also saw on that same week, but what an incredible week it was, that the FBI had reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton's staff and use of a private email server,鈥� he said.
In 2020, a major October Surprise was Trump getting sick with COVID-19, as well as Hunter Biden鈥檚 laptop. a story in mid-October 2020 found on the device.
鈥淎nd so here we are now, in 2024 with 鈥榓nything can happen,鈥欌�� Balcerski said. 鈥淚 wouldn't be surprised if it does.鈥�
