After a decade of rapid growth, wind energy in Maine has hit the doldrums. No big new wind projects are likely to go live anytime soon, and it could cost billions to unlock enough of the state鈥檚 wind resource 鈥� the best in the region 鈥� to serve southern New England鈥檚 thirst for renewable energy.
Almost every year since 2007, a new wind energy plantation has gone into service in Maine. Last December, New England鈥檚 biggest-yet joined the mix, spinning 56 turbines from the hills of Maine鈥檚 Bingham region, about 30 miles east of the Sugarloaf ski resort as the crow flies.
Today, the blades in Bingham turn a slow waltz atop a series of white, 300-foot pylons that string out across the misty ridgelines.
鈥淚t鈥檚 mostly fiberglass. They have a spar that runs through the middle as the main beam support, but they just float on the wind,鈥� says Stacey Fitts, who manages the Bingham Wind Plantation and other assets held by Novatus, one of the various companies that picked up the pieces after the nation鈥檚 biggest renewable energy company, Sun Edison, went bankrupt last year.
Wind turbines have proliferated because they serve public policies that require renewable generation in the mix. And developers have focused on Maine because it鈥檚 the windiest part of New England.
But Maine already has more renewable energy than it needs. So this renewable energy is serving contracts with customers in Massachusetts and Vermont.
鈥淭his is a commodity just like our forest products industry or some of the other industries native to Maine. Maine has something that鈥檚 marketable,鈥� he says.
Actually, for the first time in a decade, the product isn鈥檛 so marketable.
鈥淭here doesn鈥檛 seem to be as wide an appetite for some of these new wind farms in northern New England that there was even just a few years before. And I鈥檓 not sure if that鈥檚 going to change anytime soon,鈥� says Dan Dolan, executive director of the New England Power Generators Association.
Dolan and many other industry players note that Maine wind energy projects were shut out last fall when they bid on a big southern New England clean energy power contract. Solar and wind projects closer to the demand centers were the real winners.
Being close to demand matters, because as of now, there鈥檚 no more room on Maine鈥檚 transmission system to bring new wind power from remote locations to market.
鈥淚t was not designed with the purpose of integrating large quantities of generation,鈥� says Al McBride, director of transmission strategy for the region鈥檚 grid system operator, ISO New England.
McBride says Maine鈥檚 part of the system was originally constructed to handle local electricity usage, and to connect Maine with New Hampshire and New Brunswick. But the system now has added more than 750 megawatts of wind-generated electric capacity in Maine over the last decade.
Adding much more, he says, would be like crowding an unpaved carriage road with tandem-trailer trucks.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no remaining headroom on the system,鈥� McBride says.
McBride's job includes analyzing what kind of infrastructure investments would add enough headroom to allow the safe and reliable addition of new generation. He and ISO-New England are analyzing possible solutions and costs now. Some other groups preliminarily estimate the cost of bringing significant new wind energy from Maine to southern New England at $2 billion and upwards, depending on assumptions about the region's demand over the next 8-12 years.
The costliness of that added headroom is at least part of why a northern Maine project twice the size of the one I just visited in western Maine recently put construction on hold, forcing the abandonment of a contract with two 海角换妻 utilities. It's part of why, after years of juggling multiple applications for new wind plantations, Maine land use regulators are now handling exactly - none.
So while developers consider their next moves, opponents of industrial wind in Maine are taking a tentative breath.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been a good combination to press pause,鈥� says Chris O鈥橬eill, a consultant who represents a group called Friends of Maine鈥檚 Mountains. 鈥淏ut there鈥檚 still an interest, especially while the production tax credit remains available, by wind developers to sink steel in the ground.鈥�
O鈥橬eil says pressure is on for new wind generators to qualify for a federal tax credit that ends soon. And there鈥檚 another hurry-up that has wind skeptics on alert 鈥� a recent Massachusetts RFP seeking enough renewable energy to serve hundreds of thousands of Bay State homes.
Industry players in Maine plan to bid, and they are looking to cut costs by integrating clusters of wind and transmission projects and, they hope, become competitive again for southern New England鈥檚 renewable energy customers.
Editor's note: This story contains a correction. In an earlier version, estimates of potential transmission costs for Maine wind energy were misstated.
Copyright 2017